Drew Lerner, Author at World Weather

Time Running Out On CIS Rain Potential; High Pressure Due

Kansas City, May 15 (World Weather Inc.) – Russia’s Central and Southern Regions have been beat up by crop damaging cold weather this month and while that has been ongoing, the soil from eastern Ukraine to western Kazakhstan has failed to get needed moisture. Rapeseed and some small grain production losses occurred this month as unusual cold brought damaging freezes to crop areas that had previously been quite warm. In the meantime, dryness remains a serious concern from eastern Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region into western Kazakhstan. Time is running out for dryness relief before a new high pressure ridge develops aloft later this month. The ridge of high pressure will induce warmer-than-usual temperatures and further restrict rainfall making the next week to ten days very important for getting needed relief into these drier areas. Ongoing drought could have a bigger impact on Russia’s grain and oilseed production than the freeze event and the situation must be closely monitored.

France, Northern Italy Flood Potentials May Increase

Kansas City, May 15 (World Weather Inc.) – A strong upper-level trough of low pressure will meander over Western Europe through early next week before shifting to the east a week from now. Waves of rain are slated for several locations in Western Europe and the Balkan Countries during this time with some of the most significant rain slated for France, northern Italy, and southern Germany where flooding will eventually be possible. General farming activity will be delayed by the rain which may lead to some crop quality issues for small grains and winter rapeseed. Production cuts are already expected this year because of freeze damage last month. The rain will be welcome in the driest areas of southeastern Europe and should support better long-term conditions for the summer grains and oilseeds.

India’s Monsoon Should Perform Well In 2024

Kansas City, May 15 (World Weather Inc.) – A combination of Neutral ENSO conditions that give way to La Nina this summer and the positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole should favor a good summer monsoon for the nation. Near to above normal precipitation is expected in many areas. Rainfall in the second half of this month is also expected to be greater than usual in far southern India because of a New Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event that will enhance pre-monsoonal showers and thunderstorms.