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Confidence Rising Over Quick El Nino To La Nina Transition

Kansas City, March 8 (World Weather Inc.) – The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) CFSv2 ENSO forecast model has been predicting a rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina this year. World Weather, Inc. has been cautious in buying into the forecast for La Nina by June because of the model’s poor track record in predictions made in January for periods more than three months into the future. However, the model has held up well in recent weeks and continues to suggest with a high level of consistency an El Nino to La Nina transition between now and July. In the past, there has been a tendency for quick El Nino to La Nina transitions to result in a significant decline in central U.S. precipitation and rise in temperatures during the summer. There is potential for that again this year.

Central South Africa To Dry Down Further; Crop Losses Possible

Kansas City, March 7 (World Weather Inc.) – A relatively warm and dry pattern continued to play out in central South Africa during the past week impacting western portions of the nation’s key summer agricultural region. Spotty rainfall did occur, though not enough to reverse the drying trend that began in February. Ongoing dryness continued to increase the risk for minor corn, oilseed, and other crop losses in Free State, North West, and neighboring areas. Many areas in eastern South Africa also dried down, but had enough moisture to maintain generally good development. Eastern South Africa will see a mix of spotty rain and sunshine during the coming week that will help maintain late-season growth. Western summer crop areas will miss out on much of the rain with temperatures remaining above normal.

Southern Spain To Get Greater Relief From Dryness

Kansas City, March 7 (World Weather Inc.) – A significant rain event is slated to impact Spain through the weekend. Southern portions of the nation struggled with dryness during the autumn and early winter, but have seen some improvement more recently. Seasonal warming and recent precipitation have induced better vegetative health rankings, although water supply is still critically low. Southwestern Morocco is still in a significant drought along with the northeast Morocco/northwest Algeria border region where recent showers were disappointing. Areas farther to the east in Algeria and northern Tunisia are in much better shape. The coming precipitation in Spain will also benefit northcentral Morocco and north-central through northeastern Algeria and northern Tunisia while drought in other areas will likely prevail despite some temporary relief.