Predicting the impact of nature. Find out how here.

Have any questions? Just call us (913) 383-1161.

July 1, 2015

No Comments

South Africa Eastern Wheat Areas Still Too Dry

This content is for members only

November 23, 2015

No Comments

Weakening El Nino To Bring On Better California Storm Potential

By Drew Lerner

November 23, 2015

Many Californians are growing impatient over the long advertised rainy weather that El Nino is supposed to bring.  But changes are just a few weeks away and there is still growing concern that when it starts raining it may not stop for a while. Many of the stronger El Nino events in the past have produced copious amounts of rain.  In actuality, it is not just El Nino that contributes to the rain, but a  large part of it is from Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).

MJO events are merely large regions in the atmosphere where conditions favor a greater than usual amount of rising motion from the surface high up into the atmosphere. Rising motion is a necessary ingredient for precipitation because quite often the only way it rains or snows is when warm, moist, air collides with cooler air.  The cool conditions will condense the moisture in the warmer air and induce raindrop building and when the droplets get large enough they will fall to earth.  This is not much different than a glass of ice water sitting on a table outside in the warm air. The cold glass condenses moisture from the air on the outer surface and in time tiny drops of water form on the glass. After a while in this exposure the drops of water begin merging and when they become heavy enough they slide down the glass to the table it is sitting on.   That is the same phenomenon that occurs when clouds gather and rain evolves.

However, sometimes it is necessary to transport warm air aloft into the atmosphere to create condensation and in order to lift the air higher it needs to become less dense. Lower density air is created when it is warmed – much like the air inside a hot air balloon. As the air inside the balloon is heated it becomes less dense and rises while more dense air moves into the balloon to fill the gap of the lower density air. The balloon continues to rise until the air inside and outside the balloon reach and equilibrium.

If that atmosphere has a general region of higher pressure aloft that restricts rising air from successfully transporting warm, moist, air upward it will not rain nearly as much as it would if there was no cap on the rising column of air.  The lack of high pressure aloft or “a cap”, as we meteorologists call it, will allow rising parcels of warm, moist, air to reach much higher heights and usually more aggressively. This quite often results in a greater amount of condensation, heavier cloud development and eventually stronger thunderstorms. So, when their is no cap on the atmosphere warm, moist, air is allowed to rise to higher altitudes and rain falls heavily.

MJO events induce better conditions for rising air. The cap is often removed in the atmosphere or it is shifting to higher altitudes and therefore greater rainfall and stronger thunderstorms evolve during the positive phase of MJO.  The “O” in MJO stands for “oscillation” because the positive phase of MJO that induces greater rainfall is usually followed by a negative phase that that puts a strong cap on the atmosphere preventing thunderstorms from developing or keeping them very weak and poor rainfall producers.

MJO events typically develop over Africa and move through the Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia and eventually into the Pacific Ocean, always over the topical areas. During the winter season these MJO events can hold together for longer periods of time and they can drift all the way to the west coast of North America at times bringing significant rain to California, Mexico and the U.S. Pacific Northwest.

Strong El Nino events and Rapidly evolving El Nino events tend to suppress MJO events from evolving, which is one of the primary reasons why El Nino events product droughts in the tropics because conditions become less favorable for rising air. The El Nino events tend to produce more high pressure aloft and that creates a more prevailing environment for the negative phase of MJO.

Now that the 2015 El Nino has reached its peak in development it will soon begin a weakening trend. MJO events have been rare and as soon as the El Nino begins a more significant bout of weakening MJO events will start occurring more routinely bringing abundant rain events through the tropics of Africa, southern India, Indonesia, Malaysia, southeastern China, Philippines and northern Australia.  Occasionally the MJO events should stream across the Pacific to bring moisture into California.

El Nino events also tend to warm the ocean greatly and sea surface temperatures are well above average in much of the northeastern and east-central Pacific Ocean providing more warm air to lift upward, but also more moisture to lift, as well. The warmer then ocean temperatures become in the eastern Pacific the more intense MJO events can become and during the middle of winter when air masses move across the Pacific Ocean from the higher latitudes there becomes a number of very large storms that feed upon MJO events. The warm, moist, ocean air is driven high into the atmosphere by MJO and the cold winds of winter catch the rising air and quickly condenses it while forming tremendous sized storms and the result in many big rian and snow producing storms that slam into California and the west coast of the United States.

El Nino, MJO and warmer than usual northeastern Pacific Ocean water usually work together during the heart of winter to produce flooding rainfall and California is often the biggest recipient of the rain, although northern Mexico and the U.S. Pacific Northwest can also be impacted.

The weakening trend in El Nino that will become more significant in December and January is sure to set off many more large storms in the western United States and instead of wanting more rain some Californians may start crying for drier weather by the time late winter arrives.

 

 

January 15, 2016

No Comments

Hurricane Alex Losing Tropical Characteristics Over Atlantic

This content is for members only

February 22, 2016

No Comments

Ivory Coast, Ghana And Nigeria Coffee, Cocoa Heat Up

This content is for members only

February 23, 2016

No Comments

Is Modoki El Nino Returning? Not Good For California

This content is for members only

May 24, 2016

No Comments

West-Central Africa Rainfall Improves For Crops

This content is for members only

August 4, 2016

No Comments

Dryness Will Continue For Ghana, Southern Ivory Coast

This content is for members only

September 27, 2016

No Comments

La Nina “Like” Conditions Become More Significant

This content is for members only

January 23, 2017

No Comments

North Africa Dryness Whittled Down To SW Morocco

This content is for members only

February 12, 2017

No Comments

Tropical Cyclone Developing In Mozambique Channel

This content is for members only

March 5, 2017

No Comments

Madagascar Tropical Cyclone To Impact Sugarcane, Rice

This content is for members only

March 10, 2017

No Comments

World Rice Weather: Mercosur Receives Excessive Rain

This content is for members only

May 2, 2017

No Comments

NOAA ENSO Model Calms Down About El Nino

This content is for members only

July 6, 2017

No Comments

World Cotton Weather For July 6

This content is for members only

August 4, 2017

No Comments

World Oilseeds Weather For August 4, 2017

This content is for members only

August 25, 2017

No Comments

World Soil Moisture: Parts of Europe, Australia & Canada Dry

This content is for members only

August 30, 2017

No Comments

Pacific Ocean Cooling May Lead To Some La Nina Tendency

This content is for members only

October 5, 2017

No Comments

La Nina Evolution Well Under Way

This content is for members only

October 25, 2017

No Comments

Timely Rain Needed For South Africa In November

This content is for members only

November 10, 2017

No Comments

Morocco, Spain And Portugal Need Rain

This content is for members only

November 14, 2017

No Comments

World Wheat Weather For November 14, 2017

This content is for members only

November 21, 2017

No Comments

World Cotton Weather For November 22, 2017

This content is for members only

December 5, 2017

No Comments

La Nina May Be Around Longer Than Some Believe

This content is for members only

December 20, 2017

No Comments

Western South Africa Summer Crops Need Rain

This content is for members only

January 5, 2018

No Comments

Soil Moisture Still Favorable For Much Of Eastern South Africa

This content is for members only

January 17, 2018

No Comments

Tropical Cyclone Berguitta Threatens Sugar Production

This content is for members only

February 28, 2018

No Comments

World Cotton Weather For March 1, 2018

This content is for members only

March 4, 2018

No Comments

Tropical Cyclone Dumazile Promotes Heavy Rain in Madagascar

This content is for members only

April 11, 2018

No Comments

World Cotton Weather For April 11, 2018

This content is for members only

April 25, 2018

No Comments

West-Central Africa Rainfall Becomes More Erratic

This content is for members only

July 29, 2018

No Comments

East Australia Rainfall May Improve, According To SOI Data

This content is for members only

August 22, 2018

No Comments

East Atlantic Ocean Warming; Tropical Activity May Increase

This content is for members only

August 30, 2018

No Comments

Tropical Depression Six Forming Off Africa West Coast

This content is for members only

October 10, 2018

No Comments

West-Central Africa Rainfall Easing Seasonally

This content is for members only

December 5, 2018

No Comments

West-Central Africa Coffee, Cocoa Areas Entering Dry Season

This content is for members only

January 23, 2019

No Comments

Tropical Disturbance Near Madagascar Little Threat To Crops

This content is for members only

February 7, 2019

No Comments

Selected Overnight Precipitation and Temperature Maps for Feb. 7, 2019

This content is for members only

March 6, 2019

No Comments

Northwest Africa, Spain Need Greater Rain

This content is for members only

July 17, 2019

No Comments

Selected Overnight Precipitation and Temperature Maps for July 17, 2019

This content is for members only

July 19, 2019

No Comments

World Cotton Weather For July 19, 2019

This content is for members only

December 4, 2019

No Comments

Ocean/Atmosphere Changes Will Not Change Winter Outlook

This content is for members only

March 4, 2020

No Comments

West-Central Africa Seasonal Thundershowers Begin

This content is for members only

August 3, 2020

No Comments

Ivory Coast, Ghana To Wait At Least Two Weeks For Rain

This content is for members only

January 19, 2021

No Comments

Tropical Cyclone Eloise To Have Low Impact on Madagascar

This content is for members only

January 21, 2022

No Comments

Madagascar To Be Impacted By Tropical Disturbance

This content is for members only

September 6, 2022

No Comments

NOAA ENSO Model Extends La Nina Into January

This content is for members only

November 18, 2022

No Comments

Northwest Africa To See Rain; Drought Will Persist In Morocco

This content is for members only

January 19, 2023

No Comments

Madagascar Tropical Cyclone Has Low Impact On Crops

This content is for members only

January 24, 2023

No Comments

Tropical Cyclone Cheseno To Bring More Rain To Madagascar

This content is for members only

February 25, 2023

No Comments

Northwestern Africa To Receive Much-Needed Rainfall

This content is for members only

March 10, 2023

No Comments

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Continues Its Record-Breaking Trek

This content is for members only

March 21, 2023

No Comments

Warm and Rainy Conditions to Occur in West-Central Africa

This content is for members only

January 11, 2024

No Comments

Morocco, Eastern Spain Still Suffering From Dryness

This content is for members only

January 23, 2024

No Comments

West Africa Coffee, Cocoa Still Warm, But Missing Wind

This content is for members only

March 27, 2024

No Comments

World Coffee Weather For March 27, 2024

This content is for members only